Statistics Tool

Hypergeometric Distribution Calculator - Sampling Without Replacement Probability

Free hypergeometric distribution calculator. Calculate probabilities for sampling without replacement with step-by-step statistical solutions. Our calculator uses the hypergeometric formula P(X=k) = [C(K,k) × C(N-K,n-k)] / C(N,n) to compute exact probabilities for finite population sampling.

Last updated: December 15, 2024

Sampling without replacement analysis
Mean, variance, and standard deviation
Step-by-step probability calculations

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Hypergeometric Distribution Calculator
Calculate probabilities for sampling without replacement

Total number of items in the population

Number of success items in the population

Number of items drawn from population

Number of successes you want in your sample

Distribution Results

P(X = 2):

0.274280

27.4280% probability

Mean (μ):

1.2500

Expected value

Std Dev (σ):

0.9295

√variance

Variance (σ²):

0.8640

Formulas Used:

  • • P(X=k) = [C(K,k) × C(N-K,n-k)] / C(N,n)
  • • Mean: μ = n × K / N
  • • Variance: σ² = n × K × (N-K) × (N-n) / [N² × (N-1)]
  • • Std Dev: σ = √variance

Calculation Steps:

  1. Step 1: Identify the parameters
  2. N = 52, K = 13, n = 5, k = 2

Key Concepts:

  • • Sampling without replacement from finite population
  • • Different from binomial (which assumes replacement)
  • • Applies when population size is small or fixed
  • • Example: Drawing cards, selecting defective items
  • • Requires K ≤ N, n ≤ N, k ≤ min(n, K)

Hypergeometric Distribution Calculator Features

Hypergeometric Probability
Calculate exact probabilities

Formula

P(X=k) = [C(K,k)×C(N-K,n-k)] / C(N,n)

Exact probability for sampling without replacement

Expected Value (Mean)
Average number of successes

Formula

μ = n × K / N

Expected number of successes in sample

Variance & Standard Deviation
Measure of distribution spread

Formula

σ² = n×K×(N-K)×(N-n) / [N²(N-1)]

Includes finite population correction

Sampling Without Replacement
Finite population sampling

Key Feature

No Replacement

Probabilities change with each draw

Combinatorics Calculator
Combination calculations

Method

C(n,k) = n! / (k!(n-k)!)

Counts ways to choose k items from n

Quality Control Calculator
Defect probability analysis

Application

Lot Sampling

Inspect batches for defective items

Quick Example Result

Drawing 5 cards from a deck, probability of getting exactly 2 hearts

N=52 cards, K=13 hearts, n=5 cards drawn, k=2 hearts desired

Probability

0.2743

27.43% chance

How Our Hypergeometric Distribution Calculator Works

Our hypergeometric distribution calculator computes probabilities for sampling without replacement from finite populations. The calculator uses combinatorial mathematics to calculate the exact probability of getting a specific number of successes in a sample.

Hypergeometric Distribution Formula

Probability Mass Function:

P(X = k) = [C(K,k) × C(N-K, n-k)] / C(N,n)

Where:

  • • N = Population size
  • • K = Number of success states in population
  • • n = Sample size (number of draws)
  • • k = Number of observed successes in sample
  • • C(n,k) = Combinations (n choose k)

Mean (Expected Value):

μ = n × K / N

Variance:

σ² = n × K × (N-K) × (N-n) / [N² × (N-1)]

The hypergeometric distribution models sampling without replacement, where each draw changes the composition of the remaining population. The factor (N-n)/(N-1) is the finite population correction that distinguishes it from the binomial distribution.

Mathematical Foundation

The hypergeometric distribution is based on combinatorics. The numerator counts favorable outcomes: C(K,k) ways to choose k successes from K available, times C(N-K,n-k) ways to choose the remaining items from failures. The denominator C(N,n) counts all possible ways to choose n items from N. The ratio gives the exact probability.

  • Based on combinatorial analysis and counting principles
  • Sampling is done without replacement (items not returned)
  • Applies to finite populations of known size
  • Probability changes with each draw (dependent events)
  • Reduces to binomial when N → ∞ (infinite population)
  • Used in quality control, card games, and survey sampling

Sources & References

  • Introduction to Probability - Joseph K. Blitzstein, Jessica HwangComprehensive coverage of discrete distributions
  • Probability and Statistics - Morris H. DeGroot, Mark J. Schervish (4th Edition)Standard reference for probability distributions
  • Khan Academy - Probability and StatisticsFree educational resources for probability

Hypergeometric Distribution Examples

Card Drawing Example
Calculate probability of drawing exactly 2 hearts in a 5-card hand

Given Information:

  • N (Population): 52 cards in deck
  • K (Successes): 13 hearts
  • n (Sample): 5 cards drawn
  • k (Desired): 2 hearts

Calculation Steps:

  1. C(13,2) = 78 ways to choose 2 hearts
  2. C(39,3) = 9,139 ways to choose 3 non-hearts
  3. C(52,5) = 2,598,960 total 5-card hands
  4. P(X=2) = (78 × 9,139) / 2,598,960
  5. P(X=2) ≈ 0.2743 or 27.43%

Result: P(X = 2) = 0.2743 (27.43%)

Expected mean: μ = 5 × 13/52 = 1.25 hearts per hand

Quality Control Example

Batch of 100 items, 10 defective. Sample 20 items.

P(exactly 3 defective) = hypergeometric(100, 10, 20, 3)

Lottery Example

Choose 6 from 49 numbers, 5 are winners

P(matching k numbers) uses hypergeometric

Frequently Asked Questions

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